Friday’s post got me thinking over the weekend. I have a pretty clear opinion on why the business of television is in flux. But are deals like NextNewNetworks proving me wrong?

First, let me summarize my view of TV today. Viewership is declining and has been for years. Any number of research studies will show a decrease in the time people spend watching television vs. a dramatic increase in their time spent online. The trend has accelerated so quickly that traditional television networks are having to refund advertising money for missed audience projections in some cases.

Now everyone has their favorite explanation for what’s going on behind the scenes. Some people say user-generated content on sites like YouTube are stealing viewers. Others say that reality television has killed the market for truly good (and watchable) TV shows with old school dramatic or comedic appeal. My co-founder at TIOTI has the opinion that TV shows have replaced networks as the new “brands” in viewer’s minds, meaning that the monolithic audiences of networks like ABC, NBC or CBS only come via exclusively licensed sporting events like the NCAA playoffs or the SuperBowl.

All of these explanations are plausible, but here’s what I think…

It’s not like watching TV got harder. Here in the US, I can click the power button on my Comcast-powered plasma and scroll through hundreds of channels of content. I can click another button and scroll through everything my DVR has snagged for me over the last few days. And this magic isn’t just possible on the big screen in the living room. I can do the same thing in the master bedroom, the kids’ rooms, the guest room and even the garage. (I’m a gadget freak…What can I say?)

Therein lies the problem as far as I’m concerned. TV used to be social. People would tune into Dallas to see “Who shot JR?” not just because they were personally and emotionally invested in the story line. They tuned in because they knew everyone else would be watching @ 9 p.m. that night too, and because they wanted to say, “I knew I was right!” when everyone gathered around the water cooler to talk about the show the next day.

In the age of micro-content and DVR’s, there’s little guarantee that what I’m watching tonight is even remotely connected to what other people will say they watched at the water cooler tomorrow. Heck, my kids are in the back room watching a different movie than the one my wife and I are viewing on the couch right now.

Television needs to re-connect with its social side to get audience back. People are spending time on MySpace, Facebook and the Web in general because it’s a two-way communication. Instead of just absorbing last night’s episode, they can participate, discuss, chat and share if they sit at a PC instead of lying on the couch.

This article from The New York Times sums it up nicely, I think. The article definitely caused some tension between me and TIOTI co-founder, because he was of the view that just putting content in one aggregated online place would be enough to re-connect audiences.

I think people are tired of passive consumption of content and I think that even content-heavy sites need to build tools that promote interactivity and socializing as a priority. A decent example of where this approach is working is at BuddyTV right here in Seattle. I mean just look at the comparative numbers.
But I started this post conceding that I could be wrong. NextNewNetworks just got $15mm for micro-content that doesn’t have a whole lot of interactivity around it. So maybe it’s just about making better television shows after all…